Your Source For Tennessee Volunteers Football
5–2 (3–2 SEC)

(17) Florida

Gators
AT
6–1 (4–1 SEC)

(3) Georgia

Bulldogs
Saturday, Oct. 313:30 PM ETMercedes-Benz Stadium · AtlantaABCGeorgia −12.5Dome · Overcast outside · 73°F · Wind 13 mph

The call

Georgia owns the settled quarterback, the far stingier defense and five straight wins in this rivalry. Florida owns the best running back on the field, the better kicker and a bye week spent healing its receivers. Both teams are off a Week 8 bye; the Cocktail Party moves to Atlanta’s dome while Jacksonville’s stadium is renovated, with Georgia the designated home team.

Projected final
23—31

Georgia by eight

Gunner Stockton’s efficiency (74.1%, 9.9 yards per attempt, 16 TD to 4 INT) behind a line allowing about a sack a game is the steadiest thing in a game full of question marks. Florida’s quarterback question, settled late — Aaron Philo (shoulder) and Tramell Jones Jr. were both upgraded from questionable to probable on Friday night’s SEC availability report, and Gators Online reported Philo has been named the starter for his return from the shoulder injury that cost him the Texas game — plus a defense allowing 28.3 points per game against Georgia’s 15.9 keep the Gators a score short, even with Jadan Baugh shortening the game. Confidence: Medium — the winner is the consensus call, but Florida has covered in three of the last four meetings and lost last year’s game 24–20.

Why it lands there

  1. 01The quarterback gap. Stockton is a known quantity at an elite level — a 90.1 PFF grade, 12 big-time throws against five turnover-worthy plays. Florida’s question narrowed Friday: Philo and Jones Jr. were both upgraded to probable, and Gators Online reported Philo — out since the shoulder injury — has been named the starter, so rust, not availability, is the issue now; Jones Jr.’s turnover-free Texas start is the fallback.
  2. 02Georgia’s defense sets the floor. The Bulldogs allow 15.9 points per game and 4.2 yards per play (through Week 6), with 22 sacks. Florida allows 28.3 points per game — Georgia’s offense, averaging 43.0 points, needs only an ordinary day to reach the high 20s.
  3. 03Baugh keeps it inside one score. Baugh’s 763 yards, 13 rushing touchdowns and 109.0 yards per game are Florida’s clock and red-zone engine, and Auburn just ran for 192 yards on this Georgia front. That, plus Patrick Durkin’s 11-of-12 kicking, is why Florida covers the 12.5 without winning.
  4. 04The bye-week reset favors the favorite. Georgia’s Week 7 collapse against Auburn — three giveaways, zero takeaways, a walk-off loss — came with safety KJ Bolden in a boot; Kirby Smart on Monday, Oct. 26 said “I really don’t know” on Bolden for this game, and Friday night’s availability report still listed Bolden questionable — effectively a game-time decision. Georgia has won five straight in the series and Smart is 8–1 against Florida since his second season.
81.6%FPI: Georgia
30–21Georgia Moneyball model
27–23SEC Scouts projection
−12.5Spread: Georgia (Sat. books split −11.5 to −12.5)

Position by position

Each offense is matched against the defense it will actually see. Statistics are through Week 8 — both teams played seven games and were idle in Week 8. Filter by position group, or scan all eight.

Florida QB vs Georgia pass D

Georgia · moderate
Philo / Jones Jr.
Philo comp. / YPA70.5% · 9.0
Philo TD–INT9–3 · 1,341 yds
Jones Jr. season407 yds · 4–2
Jones at Texas22/35 · 155 · 2–0
Georgia coverage
Pass yds allowed185.0/g
Opp. pass efficiency114.3
Points allowed15.9/g
Bolden (S)Questionable (Fri. report) · 22 tkl · 1 INT

Read: Philo’s raw line is genuinely good — second in the SEC in completion rate. Delta, Fri. Oct. 30: Friday night’s SEC availability report upgraded BOTH quarterbacks from questionable to probable, and Gators Online reported Philo has been named the starter — his first action since the shoulder injury kept him out at Texas. Jones Jr. was turnover-free in his first start at Texas, but for 155 yards at 4.4 per attempt; Georgia’s pass defense is the best either Florida quarterback has faced.

Georgia QB vs Florida pass D

Georgia · moderate
Gunner Stockton
Comp.117/158 · 74.1%
Yards / att.9.9 · 1,570 yds
TD–INT16–4 · rating 185.9
PFF grade90.1 · passing 88.1
Florida coverage
Pass yds allowed266.6/g*
Team INT4*
At Texas (Week 7)173 yds · 5 sacks
Points allowed28.3/g

Read: Stockton’s worst game of the season — two interceptions and a late fumble against Auburn — is Florida’s template, and the Gators’ five-sack day at Texas showed a pass rush that can hurry him. But season-long, Florida’s coverage is the leakiest unit in this game (*through Week 6), and Stockton’s brief Auburn exit was clarified by Smart as a shoulder stinger, not a concussion — he returned that day and the bye has let it settle.

Florida RBs vs Georgia front

Florida · slight
Jadan Baugh and company
Baugh rushing135 · 763 · 13 TD
Baugh per game / carry109.0 · 5.7
Team rush~200/g*
At Texas46 att · 158 yds
Georgia front
Rush yds allowed57–75/g*
Per carry allowed2.5*
Vs Auburn (Week 7)192 yds allowed
Team sacks22

Read: The season-long numbers say Georgia’s run defense is elite (*through Week 6) — but Auburn’s quarterback-led ground game just hung 192 rushing yards on it, and Baugh is an AP Midseason All-American with a 50.6% breakaway rate and 36 missed tackles forced through Week 6. Florida’s clearest path is 25-plus Baugh carries; Duke Clark (ankle) was out at Texas and, after a questionable listing Wednesday, was ruled out on Friday night’s report, leaving Evan Pryor and London Montgomery behind Baugh.

Georgia RBs vs Florida front

Georgia · slight
Georgia rushing
Yards / game~198
Phillips Jr.47 · 348 · 7.4/carry
Walker~6.8/carry*
FrazierReturned vs Auburn
Florida front
Rush yds allowed126.4/g*
Per carry allowed~3.9*
At Texas (Week 7)99 yds allowed
Team sacks22

Read: Georgia’s committee has been banged up all year — Chauncey Bowens (foot) was downgraded from questionable on Wednesday to out on Thursday’s availability report, missing his third straight game — and Phillips Jr. at 7.4 per carry and Nate Frazier’s return (Frazier was not listed on the report) give it fresh legs after the bye. Florida’s front stiffened at Texas (99 rushing yards allowed), yet Missouri and South Carolina both ran through it earlier in October.

Florida WR/TE vs Georgia DBs

Florida · slight
Gators pass catchers
D. Wilson26 rec (team lead)*
Brown III (Questionable, knee)17 · 271 · 2 TD*
B. Stockton (Questionable, Fri.)23 · 258 · 2 TD*
Dippre (TE)2 TD at Texas
Georgia DBs
Pass yds allowed185.0/g
Bolden (S)Questionable (Fri.) · missed Auburn
Green (S)Out (ankle)*
Team INT4*

Read: Florida spent the bye healing this exact room: Vernell Brown III has missed three straight games (knee), but Friday night’s report moved the room the wrong way — Brown III was downgraded from probable to questionable after Gators Online reported a minor knee setback cost him the last two days of practice, while Bailey Stockton (who played slowed at Texas) improved from doubtful to questionable. At full strength against a Georgia safety room missing Tyriq Green and possibly KJ Bolden (Smart Monday: “I really don’t know”), this is Florida’s one skill-position edge — and it shrinks if Brown sits again.

Georgia WR/TE vs Florida DBs

Georgia · slight
Bulldogs pass catchers
Pass offense263.0/g*
Dandridge4 · 88 vs Auburn
Taylor4 · 110 · 1 vs Oklahoma*
Luckie (TE)TD vs Auburn
Florida DBs
Pass yds allowed266.6/g*
Johnson2 INT*
Team INT4*
At Texas (Week 7)173 yds allowed

Read: Georgia spreads it around — no single Florida corner can be avoided, and Thomas Blackshear remains out while Isiah Canion was upgraded to questionable on Wednesday’s report, without thinning the rotation that produced against Auburn (Dandridge 88 yards, Taylor 64). Florida’s secondary takes the ball away just often enough, and its Week 7 form was its best of the season, to keep this from being a bigger edge.

Florida OL vs Georgia DL

Georgia · slight
Gators protection
Sacks allowed8*
At Texas1 sack allowed
HonorJoe Moore midseason roll
Run-block grade70.2*
Georgia pressure
Team sacks22 · 5 vs Auburn
WilsonTeam LB leader
ColeTeam-high pressures*
Yds / play allowed4.2*

Read: Florida’s line is its best unit and just held Texas to one sack, but it cracked for three sacks and 11 tackles for loss in the two games before that. Georgia’s pressure is distributed — five different Bulldogs recorded sacks against Auburn — and whoever starts at quarterback for Florida will feel it on third-and-long.

Georgia OL vs Florida DL

Georgia · slight
Bulldogs protection
Sacks allowed8 · ~1.1/game
TFL allowed2.67/game*
At Alabama1 sack · 206 rush yds
3rd-down offense54.7%*
Florida pressure
Team sacks22 · 5 at Texas
GrahamGame-icing strip-sack
McCray1.5 sacks at Texas
TFL at Texas11

Read: Florida’s front is the Gators’ defensive strength — Myles Graham’s strip-sack of Arch Manning sealed the Texas upset — but Georgia’s line is the SEC’s best protection unit (first in the SEC in tackles for loss allowed through Week 6) and Marcus Harrison’s clearance keeps it intact. Stockton’s 2.51-second average time to throw does the rest.

Possession pressure

Nearly even on the season — Georgia +3, Florida +2 — but the last game each team played flipped both profiles: Georgia lost the turnover battle 0–3 to Auburn, and Florida won it 1–0 at Texas without a single giveaway.

Georgia margin+3

11 takeaways · 8 giveaways

Florida margin+2

9 takeaways · 7 giveaways

Georgia points off TO62–19

Scored vs allowed, through Week 6

Florida points off TO42–3

Scored vs allowed, through Week 5

What remains open: Stockton had thrown two interceptions all season before Auburn intercepted him twice and Cody Sigler stripped him in the final minute — three Georgia giveaways in one afternoon. Florida’s quarterback choice cuts both ways: Philo has three interceptions in six starts, while Jones Jr. protected the ball at Texas but has two interceptions in relief work. One short field either way swings an eight-point projection.

Field goals & field position

Florida holds the kicking edge: Durkin is 11-of-12 with a 53-yard long, while Woodring is 7-of-9 after a blocked kick against Auburn. Georgia’s punter owns the bigger gross average on a small sample; Florida’s Clark is the steadier field-position weapon. Mercedes-Benz Stadium’s roof removes wind from the equation entirely.

Florida · Patrick Durkin

11/1291.7%
Long 53
At Texas2/2 · 45 & 28 yds
PAT34/34
ProfileTulane transfer · Groza watch
Clark gross punt avg.46.8 · long 70

Georgia · Peyton Woodring

7/977.8%
Long 49
Vs Auburn1/2 · 42 make · 1 blocked
PAT38/38 · team streak 210+
Career FG~88%
Miller gross punt avg.48.8* · long 65
*Through Week 6, 12 punts; 36.3 avg. vs Auburn. Official Georgia statistics

Ball placement & rushing upside

Both quarterbacks have real tracking data this year. Where premium metrics were unavailable — Jones Jr.’s splits, explosive-run rates — the analysis uses clearly labeled proxies rather than pretending the missing numbers exist.

14 / 26

Philo on throws of 20+ air yards

459 yards and 3 touchdowns, with a 61.5% adjusted deep completion rate — fifth-best in the FBS — and an 80.7% overall adjusted completion rate, seventh-best nationally. If his shoulder is right, Philo is the more dangerous downfield passer in this game.

  • Stockton’s tracking line: 90.1 PFF overall grade (88.1 passing), 12 big-time throws against 5 turnover-worthy plays, 8.7-yard average depth of target and a 2.51-second average time to throw through 178 dropbacks.
  • No public on-target or adjusted-completion split was found for Jones Jr.; his proxy is the Texas start itself — 22-of-35, zero turnovers, 4.4 yards per attempt, a manage-the-game profile.
  • Baugh’s explosive proxy: 50.6% breakaway rate and 36 missed tackles forced through Week 6 (PFF via Florida), a 75-yard long run, and 5.7 yards per carry on 135 carries for the season.
  • Georgia’s rushing proxy: Phillips Jr. at 7.4 yards per carry and a team mark near 198 yards per game; no public yards-after-contact split was found for either backfield.
  • Line-play proxy: sacks allowed (Florida 8 through Week 6 plus one at Texas; Georgia eight all season) and sacks generated (22 each); public line-yards splits were unavailable.

Sources & caveats

Statistics are a dated snapshot through Week 8, compiled Sunday, October 25, 2026 and delta-checked Saturday, October 31; both teams were idle in Week 8, so season totals run through the Week 7 games of October 17. The first Week 9 SEC availability report was published Wednesday night, October 28: Florida listed both quarterbacks (Philo and Jones Jr.) and RB Duke Clark questionable, WR Vernell Brown III probable, and WR Bailey Stockton and LB Jaden Robinson doubtful; Georgia listed DB KJ Bolden, RB Chauncey Bowens and WR Isiah Canion questionable, with WR Thomas Blackshear, OLB Amaris Williams and S Tyriq Green out. Thursday night’s second report (October 29) left Florida’s list unchanged and downgraded Bowens from questionable to out — his third straight missed game — while Bolden and Canion remained questionable. Friday night’s third report (October 30) was Florida’s big move: Philo and Jones Jr. were upgraded from questionable to probable — and Gators Online reported Philo has been named the starter — Brown III was downgraded from probable to questionable after a reported minor knee setback, Bailey Stockton improved from doubtful to questionable, and Clark and LB Jaden Robinson were ruled out; Georgia’s list was unchanged, with Bolden and Canion still questionable. A final report is due 90 minutes before kickoff. Thursday’s delta moved the market again: the consensus spread went from Georgia −11.5 to −12.5 (Vegas Insider consensus; Action Network showed Florida +12.5 early Thursday) with the total holding near 55.5. Friday’s books split the number — BetMGM at Georgia −11.5 (lines updated Friday, 7:01 AM ET) and DraftKings at −12.5, with the total up to 56.5 at both — so the gamebar keeps −12.5, and Saturday’s books held that same split (BetMGM and Action Network at −11.5; FanDuel and TheSpread at −12.5; UGA Wire’s Saturday BetMGM update listed Georgia by 12), while the projection stayed Georgia 31, Florida 23 — Florida still covers at either number. A Friday tally of 28 expert picks (247Sports, Oct. 30) was unanimous for Georgia, averaging Georgia 32, Florida 21, with ESPN FPI down slightly to 81.6% for Georgia. Saturday’s USA TODAY panel (all Georgia, scores from 27–24 to 35–20) and Athlon (Georgia 31–20 and 31–23) kept the straight-up consensus unanimous; Action Network’s nine-expert staff ATS vote leaned Florida +11.5, five to two with two calling it fair. The AP poll released Sunday, October 25 moved both idle teams up — Georgia to No. 3 and Florida to No. 17 — and the hero rankings reflect that poll. Weather is the Open-Meteo forecast for Atlanta at kickoff (refreshed Oct. 31: overcast, about 73°F and 13 mph wind outside at the kickoff hour); Mercedes-Benz Stadium is a retractable-roof dome, so conditions inside are controlled and weather is not a factor. An asterisk in the matchup cards marks a through-Week 6 (or Week 5, where noted) figure carried forward with the Week 7 box score.

  1. Official Georgia season statistics PDFTeam, player, kicking, punting and turnover totals.
  2. On3 — Gunner Stockton 2026 line & game log117/158, 1,570 yards, 16 TD, 4 INT, 185.9 rating through seven games.
  3. PFF — Gunner Stockton profile90.1 overall grade, big-time throws, turnover-worthy plays, depth of target, time to throw.
  4. On3 — Aaron Philo 2026 line & game log105/149, 1,341 yards, 9 TD, 3 INT in six starts.
  5. Florida roster bio — Aaron PhiloAdjusted completion rates, deep-ball splits and PFF grades via Florida.
  6. On3 — Jadan Baugh 2026 line & game log135 carries, 763 yards, 13 TD through seven games.
  7. Florida — Baugh AP Midseason All-AmericaBreakaway rate, missed tackles forced and FBS rushing-TD lead.
  8. SEC Scouts — Florida at Georgia previewExpert projection: Georgia 27, Florida 23; per-game production comparison.
  9. Covers — rivalry history, odds & pickFlorida covers in three of the last four; 2025 result 24–20 Georgia; series and Atlanta venue notes. (Covers now shows Georgia −11.5, total 55.5 as of Oct. 28.)
  10. Pretoria Fields — Dawg Sports Report (Oct. 18)ESPN FPI 82.7% Georgia; Georgia Moneyball model 30–21 (70%); quarterback and injury context.
  11. 247Sports — ESPN FPI schedule predictionsFPI win probability and Florida’s FPI ranking.
  12. On3 — Crain & Cone Florida predictionsUnanimous Georgia pick from all three panelists.
  13. UGA Wire — Georgia 2026 game-by-game predictionsGeorgia 27, Florida 20 preseason projection.
  14. UGA Wire — Georgia AP poll after Auburn lossGeorgia No. 5, Florida No. 20 after Week 7; records and bye-week setup.
  15. Gators Wire — Florida back in AP Top 25Florida No. 20 (355 points), Coaches No. 24; Texas win and Jones Jr. start.
  16. GatorBait Media — Florida-Georgia outlook (Oct. 23)Philo AC-joint timeline; receiver corps healing over the bye; Jones Jr. preparation.
  17. UGA Wire — KJ Bolden injury update (Oct. 21)Bolden hopeful per Kirby Smart; 22 tackles, 1 INT; Georgia’s banged-up backfield.
  18. Boyds Bets — college football injury reportPhilo questionable (shoulder) and Brown III questionable (knee) for Oct. 31.
  19. Sports Illustrated — Florida QB change for TexasJones Jr. first start; Philo limited by shoulder; Sumrall comments.
  20. Gators Wire — Monday betting lines (Oct. 26)BetMGM: Georgia −10.5, total 56.5; AP No. 3 Georgia vs. No. 17 Florida; kickoff/TV confirmation.
  21. DawgNation — AP Top 25, Week 9 (Oct. 25)Georgia up to No. 3, Florida up to No. 17 in the official AP poll.
  22. DawgNation — Georgia injury reportBolden still the secondary question; Smart clarified Stockton’s Auburn exit as a shoulder stinger, not a concussion; official availability report due Oct. 28.
  23. GatorBait Media — Florida injury picture (Oct. 25)Philo questionable, starter unannounced; Sumrall “really good” about Brown III’s progress; B. Stockton (back), Singleton Jr. (ankle) healing, Clark a question mark.
  24. Cleatz — SP+ projections, Week 9SP+ (Connelly sheet): Georgia −16.5, 85% win probability.
  25. Open-Meteo — Atlanta forecast, Oct. 31Overcast (weather code 3), about 73°F and 13 mph wind at the 3:30 PM ET kickoff hour outside the dome (refreshed Oct. 31).
  26. Gainesville Sun — Florida injury / QB update (Oct. 26)Sumrall: Philo and Jones Jr. both took first-team reps Monday; Brown III practiced fully and is close to 100% after missing three games (knee); spread Georgia −10.5, total 55.5, 3:30 PM ET, ABC, Mercedes-Benz Stadium.
  27. Saturday Down South — Sumrall QB timeline (Oct. 26)Both QBs available; starter decision by Wednesday, no big announcement.
  28. Online Athens — Smart on Bolden (Oct. 26)Smart: “I really don’t know” on Bolden or Canion; first SEC availability report Wednesday night.
  29. Action Network — Florida vs. Georgia odds (checked Oct. 29)Action’s line history: Florida +11.5 on Oct. 27, +12 on Oct. 28 and +12.5 early Thursday, Oct. 29; gamebar updated to Georgia −12.5 on Oct. 29.
  30. Vegas Insider — Week 9 odds & line movementOpened Georgia −10.5 / total 56; by Thursday, Oct. 29 the Vegas Insider consensus was Georgia −12.5 with the total near 55.5 (most books −12.5; FanDuel still −11.5).
  31. USA Today — Week 9 expert picks (Oct. 28)All five panelists pick Georgia (33–23, 35–20, 31–20, 29–27, 30–21); spread Georgia −11.5, total 55.5.
  32. College Football News — Florida vs. Georgia prediction (Oct. 28)Georgia 34, Florida 23; latest consensus line Georgia −11.5, total 55.5.
  33. Saturday Down South — ESPN SP+ predictionSP+ projects Georgia 36, Florida 19 in Atlanta.
  34. On3 — initial SEC availability report (Oct. 28)Florida: Brown III probable; Philo, Jones Jr. and Clark questionable; B. Stockton and Robinson doubtful. Georgia: Bolden, Bowens and Canion questionable; Blackshear, Green and Amaris Williams out.
  35. Gators Wire — Wednesday availability report (Oct. 29)Both teams list six players; Smart on Amaris Williams: “not in any shape to play.”
  36. Covers — Week 9 AI predictions (Oct. 29)Model projection: Georgia 38, Florida 24 (Georgia by 14), ATS Georgia −11.5, Over 55.5.
  37. Gators Wire — CBS Sports picks (Oct. 28)CBS analysts Crawford and Hummer both pick Georgia to win; split on the margin (Hummer close, Crawford comfortable) at Georgia −11.5.
  38. On3 — Thursday availability report (Oct. 30)Bowens moved from questionable to out in Thursday’s updated SEC report, missing his third straight game (foot); Bolden and Canion remain questionable; Florida’s report unchanged.
  39. Online Athens — second SEC availability report (Oct. 29)Georgia’s second report, updated Thursday, Oct. 29: Bolden still questionable, Bowens downgraded to out; both Florida quarterbacks still questionable, Brown III probable.
  40. 247Sports — national media predictions tally (Oct. 30)28 expert picks, all for Georgia, average score Georgia 32, Florida 21; CBS panel all Georgia, Athlon all Georgia, Sporting News (Bender) Georgia 34–21, SP+ Georgia 36–19, ESPN FPI Georgia 81.6%.
  41. UGA Wire — Joel Klatt prediction (Oct. 29)Fox Sports’ Klatt picks Georgia 31–20 but says the Bulldogs are favored by too much — Florida covers at Georgia −12 (BetMGM, Thu.).
  42. NBC Sports — Friday odds (Oct. 30)DraftKings as of Friday: Georgia −12.5, total 56.5; confirms Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, 3:30 PM ET, ABC, and Georgia No. 3 / Florida No. 17.
  43. Sportsbook Wire — Friday BetMGM odds (Oct. 30)BetMGM lines updated Friday at 7:01 AM ET: Georgia −11.5, total 56.5; prediction Georgia 27, Florida 20, with a Florida +11.5 ATS pick — the low end of Friday’s split market.
  44. On3 — Friday availability report (Oct. 30)Philo and Jones Jr. upgraded from questionable to probable, with Gators Online reporting Philo named the starter; Brown III downgraded to questionable (reported minor knee setback, missed last two practice days); B. Stockton upgraded to questionable; Clark and Robinson ruled out. Georgia unchanged: Bolden and Canion questionable, Bowens out.
  45. Gators Wire — Friday availability report (Oct. 30)Corroborates the Friday changes for both teams; final report due 90 minutes before kickoff.
  46. USA TODAY — predictions panel (Oct. 30)All staff and beat writers pick Georgia (33–23, 31–20, 29–27, 30–21, 35–20, 27–24, 34–24); BetMGM Georgia −11.5, total 56.5; Philo to start, per Marc Weiszer; confirms Atlanta venue, 3:30 PM ET, ABC.
  47. Action Network — staff picks & odds (Oct. 31)Georgia −11.5, total 56.5; nine-expert staff ATS vote leans Florida +11.5 (five for Florida, two Georgia, two fair).
  48. UGA Wire — updated Saturday odds (Oct. 31)BetMGM as of Saturday: Georgia by 12, total 55.5, moneyline −450/+350; Philo expected to start.