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SEC Week 8 · ABC Saturday Night Football
5–1 (3–1 SEC)

(7) Ole Miss

Rebels
AT
4–2 (1–2 SEC)

(19) Texas

Longhorns
Saturday, Oct. 247:30 PM ETDKR-Texas Memorial Stadium · AustinABCTexas −3Overcast · 83°F · Wind 8 mph

The call

The models still lean Texas — SportsLine projects 29–17, SP+ now puts a score on it at Texas 31–24 (−6.5), and ESPN FPI makes Texas a 7.7-point favorite — and College Football News’ game preview (Texas 30–26) and Action Network (Texas −3) joined that side Saturday. But staff picks kept stacking up for Ole Miss — ESPN’s McElroy, Bleacher Report, a flipped SportsJaw, a unanimous Fox Sports panel, College Football News’ panel consensus, and now PFF (both writers, 31–30 and 27–23) and Covers’ ATS pick (Ole Miss +3.5) — and Friday night’s official availability report points the same way: the nation’s sack leader and his backup remain out, Texas’s starting running back Hollywood Smothers was downgraded from doubtful to out (with WR Kaliq Lockett and OL Jaydon Chatman also downgraded to out), and the backup quarterback is taking first-team reps. The Ole Miss counterweight eased: center Brycen Sanders was upgraded from questionable to probable Friday, leaving only left tackle Terez Davis questionable. Ole Miss has the clearly better quarterback, the SEC’s best pass protection, and the hotter defense.

Projected final
30—27

Ole Miss by three

Chambliss outplays Manning by a wide margin, and Texas’s pass rush loses its one elite gear with Colin Simmons ruled out — and his backup, Richard Wesley, also out. Texas is also without leading rusher Hollywood Smothers, ruled out Friday. The Longhorns’ defense and a desperate home crowd keep it a one-score game into the fourth quarter.

Why it lands there

  1. 01The quarterback gap is the game’s largest edge. Chambliss: 67.6% completions, 152.8 passer rating, 14–4 TD–INT. Manning: 64%, a 59.2 QBR that ranks 61st nationally, and three fourth-quarter turnovers in the last two games.
  2. 02No Simmons, no shortcut. Thursday’s SEC availability report rules out the nation’s sack leader (10.5 sacks, 16 tackles for loss) after Wednesday’s doubtful listing, and his backup Richard Wesley is out after a practice injury; the rest of the Longhorn defense has 8.5 sacks combined. Chambliss should get the cleanest pocket he’s seen in weeks — center Brycen Sanders was upgraded to probable Friday, leaving only left tackle Terez Davis questionable for Ole Miss.
  3. 03Texas can’t stay on schedule. The Longhorns have allowed 17 sacks, went 2-for-10 on third down against Florida, and are averaging 22.7 points over their last three games — while Ole Miss’s front (Purchase, Perkins, Echoles) is trending up and the Rebels’ line allows the SEC’s fewest sacks (0.83 a game).
  4. 04The Rebels’ defense has turned. Twenty points allowed in the last two games, including holding No. 13 Missouri to three points and 39 rushing yards. Texas’s ground game (3.6 per carry, 101st nationally) can’t exploit Ole Miss’s one lingering weakness.
Texas −3Spread (opened −6.5; −3.5 Thu–Fri, ticked to −3 Sat. at Action, SportsJaw and BetMGM — still −3.5 at some books)
53.5Total (consensus; 54.5 at BetMGM)
Texas by ~6–7SP+ Texas 31–24 (−6.5); FPI Texas by 7.7; SportsLine 29–17
Split picksTexas: SI, Sporting News 31–28, CFN game preview 30–26, Action −3; Ole Miss: McElroy 27–24, B/R 26–23, SportsJaw 27–24, CFN panel consensus, Fox panel 3–0, PFF 31–30 & 27–23, Covers ATS +3.5, SBR 28–27, USA Today Wire 31–24, Clarion Ledger 26–23, SportsbookWire 27–24
Sources: Legion Report odds, The Sports Wire models, SportsJaw (Ole Miss 27–24, flipped Wed.), SEC Scouts (Ole Miss 30–27), SI (Texas −3.5), Picks & Parlays (Ole Miss +6.5), Saturday Down South line report, SportsLine model (Texas 29–17), SP+ via CLEATZ (Texas −6.5), AZ Central roundup (Sporting News Texas 31–28; ESPN FPI Texas 71.1%), ESPN’s McElroy (Ole Miss 27–24), Bleacher Report (Ole Miss 26–23), Rebel Walk: Thursday availability report (Simmons out, Smothers doubtful, Lacy cleared), Rebel Walk: Friday availability report (Smothers out, Sanders probable), PFF: Week 8 predictions (Ole Miss 31–30 & 27–23), CFN game preview (Texas 30–26), Action Network (Texas −3, total 53.5, Sat.), Covers ATS picks (Ole Miss +3.5, Sat.)

Position by position

Each offense is matched against the defense it will actually see. Filter by position group, or scan all eight.

Ole Miss QB vs Texas pass D

Ole Miss · moderate
Trinidad Chambliss
Comp.67.6%
Yards / att.8.0
TD–INT14–4
Rush yards / TD127 / 6
Passer rating152.8
Texas coverage
Pass yds allowed166.2/g (#12)
Team sacks19
SimmonsOUT (ankle)

Read: Texas’s pass defense is elite on paper but loses the nation’s sack leader — Simmons was moved from Wednesday’s doubtful listing to out on Thursday’s official report, and his backup Richard Wesley is out. Chambliss has thrown a touchdown pass in 18 straight games, owns the far cleaner efficiency profile, and has been pressured on just 18% of his dropbacks — the lowest rate of any SEC quarterback (Horns247).

Sports-Reference · theScore (Simmons) · Locked On Ole Miss · Horns247 (pressure stat)

Texas QB vs Ole Miss pass D

Texas · slight
Arch Manning
Comp.64%
Yards1,295
TD–INT11–5
QBR59.2 (61st)
Ole Miss coverage
Pass yds allowed236.5/g (#102)
INT forced*~5
Team sacks*~11

Read: Ole Miss gives up passing yards, which makes this Manning’s best matchup of the month. The brake is Manning himself: three fourth-quarter turnovers in the last two games and 17 sacks taken on the season. Sarkisian confirmed him as the starter Monday — while giving increased first-team reps to redshirt freshman KJ Lacey (Pete Thamel via Saturday Down South). *Season totals estimated; see caveats.

NBC Sports · USA Today · Sports-Reference · On3: Sarkisian presser

Ole Miss RBs vs Texas front

Texas · slight
Ole Miss rushing
Yards / game153.8
Yards / carry4.9
Rush TD13
Vs Missouri257 yds
Texas front
Allowed / game106.3 (#28)
Allowed / carry2.8*
Simmons TFL16 — OUT

Read: Texas’s front is stout, but Simmons was its most disruptive run defender too. Lacy (122) and Frazier (101) both ran wild last week, and Ole Miss’s top two backs each average over 5 yards per carry — though Lacy stays on load management, he came off the availability report entirely on Thursday — cleared after Wednesday’s probable listing for nagging left-shoulder and lower-body injuries (Clarion Ledger; Rebel Walk, Oct. 22) — with Frazier and JT Lindsey cycling in (Golding, Monday presser). *Early-season figure.

Burnt Orange Nation · Legion Report · Orangebloods

Texas RBs vs Ole Miss front

Ole Miss · slight
Texas rushing
Yards / game135.0 (#101)
Yards / carry3.6
Rush TD9
SmothersOUT
Ole Miss front
Allowed / game153.5 (#89)*
Vs Missouri39 yds allowed
Purchase sacks3.5

Read: The season numbers say Ole Miss can’t stop the run; the last two weeks say otherwise. Either way, Texas’s ground game (3.3 per carry vs Florida) is ill-equipped to test either version, especially with Smothers ruled out on Friday’s report after Thursday’s doubtful listing — he did not practice Monday and was seen in a protective sling (Horns247); Derrek Cooper (probable) and Raleek Brown carry the run game. *Trending sharply down.

Clarion Ledger · Ole Miss Hub · Hook’Em Headlines · Burnt Orange Nation (Smothers sling)

Ole Miss WR/TE vs Texas DBs

Texas · slight
Primary targets
Deuce Alexander106 yds/g
Caleb Cunningham3/61/1 vs Mizzou
Caleb Odom (TE)4/37/1 vs Mizzou
Texas DBs
Pass yds allowed166.2/g (#12)
Team4.0 yds/play def.
Pass rush nowSimmons-less

Read: Strength on strength: the 13th-ranked passing offense against the 12th-ranked pass defense. The lean goes to coverage, but without Simmons collapsing the pocket, Chambliss’s top four targets (all averaging 3+ catches a game) get time to work.

Burnt Orange Nation · Legion Report

Texas WR/TE vs Ole Miss DBs

Texas · slight
Primary targets
Cam Coleman5/110/1 vs OU
Ryan Wingo2/57/1 vs OU
Jermaine Bishop Jr.TD vs OU
Ole Miss DBs
Pass yds allowed236.5/g (#102)
Joseph (nickel)OUT (ankle)
Secondary statsNot published

Read: Ole Miss’s leakiest unit meets Texas’s most talented one — Coleman had 110 yards against Oklahoma. Whether Manning can deliver the ball on time is the only real question; Ole Miss will also be without starting nickel Edwin Joseph, confirmed out for a second straight week on Wednesday’s availability report (tightrope procedure on a high ankle sprain, per Rebel Walk), with fellow safety MJ Preston also out and corner Pat Broomfield downgraded from questionable to out on Thursday. *Estimated.

Sports-Reference · Rebel Walk (Joseph) · Red Cup Rebellion (Golding)

Ole Miss OL vs Texas DL

Texas · slight
Ole Miss protection
Sacks allowed0.83/g (SEC-best)
Team yards / play6.52
Red-zone scoring100% (24/24)
Texas pressure
Team sacks19
Simmons10.5 — OUT
Next upWatson, Umeozulu, Jackson (Wesley OUT)

Read: This was Texas’s biggest trench edge before Monday. Without Simmons, 10.5 of the Longhorns’ 19 sacks disappear and unproven edge rushers must produce against a line allowing the SEC’s fewest sacks (0.83 a game, per Locked On Ole Miss) and fueling a 100% red-zone offense — 24 of 24, 21 touchdowns. The new wrinkle cuts the other way, but eased Friday: Ole Miss starting left tackle Terez Davis (392 snaps, no sack allowed per PFF) remains questionable, while center Brycen Sanders was upgraded from questionable to probable on Friday’s availability report after both left the Missouri game.

theScore · RotoBaller · Ole Miss Hub (sacks allowed)

Texas OL vs Ole Miss DL

Ole Miss · moderate
Texas protection
Sacks allowed17
Manning sacks17
Vs Florida5 sacks, 2/10 3rd
Ole Miss pressure
Team sacks*~11
Purchase3.5
Perkins (career)20.0

Read: The game’s clearest current mismatch. Texas’s line just gave up five sacks to Florida, and Ole Miss’s front — Purchase, Perkins, Echoles — can rush four and drop seven against a quarterback holding the ball too long. Texas depth thinned further Friday: OL Jaydon Chatman was downgraded to out and OL Jackson Christian was added as questionable.

NBC Sports · Locked On Ole Miss

Possession pressure

Neither team owns a clean turnover profile — both season margins are estimated from per-game averages and box scores, since neither school’s updated season PDF was available. The sharper signal: Manning has three fourth-quarter turnovers in the last two games.

Ole Miss margin*≈ −1

~7 takeaways, ~8 giveaways

Texas margin*≈ −3

5 takeaways, 8 giveaways

Manning late turnovers3

Fourth-quarter, last 2 games

Ole Miss pts off TO24–14

SEC games, thru Oct. 11

What remains open: exact season giveaway/takeaway totals are estimates (marked with *). Confirmed components: Manning 5 INT thrown and 3 fumbles lost for Texas; Chambliss 4 INT thrown for Ole Miss; Ole Miss forced 4 turnovers vs Vanderbilt and 1 vs Missouri; Texas forced none in its last two games.
Sports-Reference Ole Miss · Texas official stats (thru Sep. 28) · Ole Miss official SEC stats (thru Oct. 11) · USA Today (Manning)

Field goals & field position

Both kickers are reliable inside 50 — Ole Miss’s Carneiro owns the longer verified leg (57), while Texas’s Spetic is 9-of-10 on the season. Texas owns the return-game weapon in Ryan Niblett.

Ball placement & rushing upside

Where premium tracking metrics were unavailable, the analysis uses clearly labeled proxies rather than pretending the missing numbers exist.

67.6 / 152.8

Chambliss completion % and passer rating, against Manning’s 64% and 59.2 QBR

The efficiency gap is the game’s widest. Chambliss has also thrown a touchdown pass in 18 straight games (one shy of Matt Corral’s school mark).

Sports-Reference · NBC Sports
  • No public adjusted completion %, on-target rate, or deep-ball splits were found for either quarterback. Completion %, yards per attempt (8.0 Chambliss), passer rating/QBR, and TD–INT ratio are used as proxies.
  • Chambliss placement proxy: ESPN’s draft analysis highlights his “accuracy on the move,” and he ranks third among 2027 NFL QB prospects; an NFC assistant GM: “he throws strike after strike.”
  • Ole Miss explosive-run proxy: 4.9 team yards per carry; Lacy (122) and Frazier (career-high 101) combined for 223 yards vs Missouri. Official explosive-run rate and yards-after-contact were not published.
  • Texas rushing proxy: 3.6 team yards per carry (101st nationally); Raleek Brown’s 32-yard touchdown vs Florida was the recent long. Smothers (out, downgraded from doubtful Friday) led the backs with 237 yards through five games.
  • Line-play proxy: sacks allowed and generated; public line-yards and TFL-allowed splits were unavailable. Ole Miss’s sacks-allowed figure (0.83 a game, SEC-best) comes from Locked On Ole Miss; official full-season splits were still not published.
Yardbarker / ESPN on Chambliss · Burnt Orange Nation

Sources & caveats

Statistics are a dated snapshot through Week 7, compiled October 20, 2026; delta-updated October 24, 2026. Kickoff verified: Saturday, Oct. 24, 7:30 p.m. ET on ABC at DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium. Injury status, the starting quarterback picture, and betting lines can change before kickoff.

  1. ABC 2026 college football scheduleOct. 24: Ole Miss @ Texas, 7:30 ET.
  3. Sports-Reference: 2026 Ole Miss statsTeam and Chambliss season totals through 6 games.
  4. Legion Report: odds + team comparisonSpread, total, per-game team stats and ranks.
  5. Clarion Ledger: Ole Miss defense vs Missouri39 rushing yards allowed; season defensive context.
  6. Clarion Ledger: polls after Week 7Ole Miss No. 7; Texas No. 18.
  7. Locked On Ole Miss newsletter (Oct. 19)No. 7 Ole Miss at No. 19 Texas; FanDuel line Texas −3.5.
  8. NBC Sports: Manning remains starterSeason line: 1,295 yds, 64%, 11–5, 59.2 QBR, 17 sacks.
  9. USA Today: Manning vs Florida14/20, 173 yds, 1 TD; late strip-sack fumble.
  10. NY Post: Texas falls to FloridaSecond straight 27–24 loss; Simmons carted off.
  11. theScore: Simmons out vs Ole MissHigh ankle sprain; 10.5 sacks, 16 TFL lead nation.
  12. Orangebloods: Simmons/Smothers updatesSimmons 3–4 weeks; Smothers questionable.
  13. Texas Athletics: Florida recapSpetic 9/10 FG; Niblett punt-return TD; Simmons 5th sack in 5 games.
  14. The Sports Wire: Ole Miss model pageSP+ Ole Miss +15.9 (#16), Texas +24.4 (#6); call: Texas by 5.2.
  15. SportsJaw predictionTexas 28, Ole Miss 24; low confidence.
  16. SEC Scouts previewOle Miss 30, Texas 27.
  17. Saturday Down South: opening lineTexas −3.5 (Circa), total 52.5.
  18. Burnt Orange Nation: odds previewOle Miss 37.5 PPG, 6.52 YPP; Texas opened −3.5.
  19. GamblingSite: line movementLine moved from Texas −6.5 to −3.5 after Week 7.
  20. Texas official stats (thru Sep. 28)Early-season team, sack, red-zone and kicking splits.
  21. Ole Miss official SEC stats (thru Oct. 11)Conference-game splits; points off turnovers.
  22. Locked On Ole Miss: Blake PurchaseLeads Rebels in sacks (3.5) and TFL (6.5).
  23. SI: Ole Miss vs Texas predictionTexas −3.5 pick; Longhorns 9th in net adjusted EPA/play, 26th in net success rate; Chambliss 1,676 yds, 14–4, 127 rush yds, 6 rush TDs.
  24. Picks and Parlays: Ole Miss vs TexasOle Miss +6.5 and under 53.5; sees a ~27–23 game; spread drifted from 8.5 to 6.5 to 3.5.
  25. On3: Sarkisian Monday presserManning remains starter; Lacey takes first-team reps weekly; no Simmons/Smothers update until Wednesday report.
  26. Longhorn Wire: Manning speaks“I’m going to be better”; 433 yds, 4 TD, 2 INT, lost fumble in the two-game skid; 63% completions on season.
  27. Ole Miss Hub: sacks allowedOle Miss allows the SEC’s fewest sacks (0.83 a game, 10th nationally).
  28. Red Cup Rebellion: Golding presserManning “elite,” Sarkisian one of the best play callers; Lacy load management continues; expects Texas to establish the run.
  29. Rebel Walk: Joseph injury reportS Edwin Joseph: tightrope procedure on high ankle sprain, out vs Missouri; could also miss the Texas game.
  30. Horns247: Simmons reportSimmons likely out; no SEC QB pressured less often than Chambliss (18% of dropbacks).
  31. SportsLine: Week 8 model score predictions (Oct. 20–21)Texas 29, Ole Miss 17; Texas covers in 70% of simulations, Under 63%.
  32. CLEATZ: SP+ projections (retrieved Oct. 21)SP+ Texas −6.5, 66% win probability; market Texas −3.5.
  33. AZ Central: Ole Miss vs Texas picks roundupSporting News: Texas 31–28; ESPN FPI: Texas 71.1%; Dimers: Texas 28–25; BetMGM Texas −3, total 53.5.
  34. SI: ESPN’s McElroy pickMcElroy takes Ole Miss 27–24, citing Rebels pass protection and red-zone offense.
  36. Burnt Orange Nation: Simmons/Smothers injuriesSimmons 3–4 weeks, no structural damage; Smothers did not practice Monday, in a protective sling (Horns247).
  37. Clarion Ledger: Lacy vs Texas (Oct. 21)Lacy expected to play through nagging left-shoulder and lower-body injuries; 5.7 yards per carry.
  38. Rebel Walk: Ole Miss depth chart vs TexasJoseph still listed as starting nickel; McStravick now first on kickoffs with Carneiro managing a foot issue, Carneiro remains placekicker.
  39. VegasInsider: Ole Miss vs Texas odds (Oct. 21)Consensus Texas −3.5, total 53.5; pick Texas −3.
  40. 247Sports / Horns247: Wednesday SEC availability report (Oct. 21)Texas: Wesley out, Simmons doubtful, Smothers/Lockett/Chatman questionable. Ole Miss: 7 out incl. Joseph and Preston; Davis, Sanders, Broomfield questionable; Lacy, Cunningham, Kutas probable.
  41. Clarion Ledger: Ole Miss vs Texas injury report (Oct. 21)Full Wednesday availability lists for both teams; Lacy probable, Joseph out, Simmons doubtful.
  42. Rebel Walk: Wednesday availability reportDavis and Sanders questionable after leaving the Missouri game; Joseph and Preston out.
  43. On3: Simmons officially doubtfulSimmons doubtful on the official report; Wesley also out, leaving Texas thin at edge.
  44. Covers: Week 8 Top 25 predictionsTexas −3.5, low confidence.
  45. College Football News: Week 8 expert picksPanel consensus pick: Ole Miss (8–6); consensus line Texas −3.5, total 53.5.
  46. Fox Sports: Week 8 expert picksYoung, Litman and Portnoy all pick Ole Miss.
  47. USA Today Wire: SEC Week 8 picks (Oct. 22)Ole Miss 31, Texas 24; BetMGM Texas −3.5, total 54.5.
  48. Action Network: Ole Miss vs Texas oddsConsensus Texas −3.5, total 54.5; Action projection Texas −6.5, staff bets split both ways.
  49. Rebel Walk: Thursday availability report (Oct. 22)Simmons downgraded doubtful to out; Smothers questionable to doubtful; Lacy, Kutas, Cunningham and four others off the report; Broomfield questionable to out; Davis and Sanders still questionable.
  50. On3: Thursday SEC availability reportSimmons and Wesley out for Texas; Smothers doubtful; Ole Miss eight out, Davis and Sanders questionable.
  51. TSN: Simmons ruled outNation’s sack leader (10.5 sacks, 16 TFL) officially out; Wesley also out; Smothers downgraded on Thursday’s report.
  52. USA Today SportsbookWire: odds, picks and predictions (Oct. 22)Prediction Ole Miss 27, Texas 24; bet Ole Miss +3.5; BetMGM Texas −3.5, total 54.5 (rankings cited are Coaches Poll: Texas No. 18).
  54. Covers: Ole Miss vs Texas odds (checked Oct. 23)Texas −3.5, total 53.5; kickoff 7:30 p.m. ET, ABC, DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium; weather not expected to impact the game.
  55. Rebel Walk: Friday availability report (Oct. 23)Sanders questionable to probable; Davis still questionable; Texas: Smothers, Lockett and Chatman downgraded to out, Christian added questionable; Simmons and Wesley remain out.
  56. 247Sports / Horns247: Friday SEC availability report (Oct. 23)Texas five out (Simmons, Smothers, Lockett, Chatman, Wesley); Ole Miss eight out, Davis questionable, Sanders probable.
  57. PFF: Week 8 biggest games preview and predictionsMax: Ole Miss 31, Texas 30; Dalton: Ole Miss 27, Texas 23.
  58. College Football News: Ole Miss vs Texas predictionTexas 30, Ole Miss 26; consensus line listed Texas −3.5, total 53.5.
  59. Action Network: Ole Miss vs Texas prediction and odds (Oct. 24)Texas −3, total 53.5; pick Texas −3 and Over 53.5.
  60. Covers: Week 8 ATS picks (Oct. 24)Ole Miss +3.5; Brad Powers best bet Over 53.5; Covers AI Texas 27–24 with Ole Miss +3.5.
  61. Saturday Down South: SP+ final scoreSP+ Texas 31, Ole Miss 24.
  62. On3: ESPN SP+ and FPI projectionsSP+ Texas by 6.5; FPI Texas by 7.7.
  63. Sportsbook Review: Ole Miss vs Texas predictionOle Miss 28, Texas 27; play Ole Miss +3.
  64. USA Today: How to watch (Oct. 24)Saturday, Oct. 24, 7:30 p.m. ET, ABC, Darrell K Royal–Texas Memorial Stadium; Fowler, Herbstreit and Rowe.

Caveats: the SEC’s official availability reports for Week 8 were released Wednesday evening, Oct. 21, updated Thursday evening, Oct. 22, and again Friday evening, Oct. 23, and the designations above now reflect the Friday report (Rebel Walk, Clarion Ledger, 247Sports): Texas — five out: EDGE Colin Simmons, EDGE Richard Wesley, RB Hollywood Smothers (downgraded from doubtful to out Friday), WR Kaliq Lockett and OL Jaydon Chatman (both downgraded from questionable to out Friday), OL Jackson Christian questionable (added Friday), RB Derrek Cooper probable; Ole Miss — eight out, including S Edwin Joseph, S MJ Preston and CB Pat Broomfield, OL Terez Davis still questionable, OL Brycen Sanders upgraded from questionable to probable Friday, and RB Kewan Lacy, WR Caleb Cunningham, OL Patrick Kutas and four others removed from the report entirely after Wednesday probable listings. A final report is due 90 minutes before kickoff. Saturday consensus update: models still lean Texas — SportsLine (Texas 29–17), SP+ (Texas 31–24, −6.5), ESPN FPI (Texas by 7.7, 71.1%), Sporting News (Texas 31–28), CFN game preview (Texas 30–26) and Action Network (Texas −3); staff picks moved further toward Ole Miss — ESPN’s McElroy (27–24), Bleacher Report (26–23), SportsJaw (Ole Miss 27–24), College Football News panel consensus (Ole Miss, 8–6), Fox Sports panel (Ole Miss, 3–0), PFF (Ole Miss 31–30 and 27–23), Covers ATS (Ole Miss +3.5), SBR (Ole Miss 28–27), Clarion Ledger (26–23) and USA Today SportsbookWire (27–24), with no model flipping away from Texas. The spread held at Texas −3.5 Oct. 22–23, then ticked to Texas −3 Saturday at Action Network, SportsJaw and BetMGM (still −3.5 at some books, including FanDuel and DraftKings in Saturday-morning tables); the total sits at 53.5 consensus and 54.5 at BetMGM. Weather at kickoff from Open-Meteo at DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium (30.2839, −97.7325), 6 p.m. CT hour: overcast, 83°F, wind 8 mph, 0% precipitation probability — no weather impact expected. Staff picks from The Athletic, Athlon, NBC Sports, Pickswise, and TheLines were still not found as of Saturday morning, Oct. 24. FEI, TeamRankings, and Sagarin projections for this specific game were not publicly available. Ole Miss’s updated season PDF (post-Missouri) and Texas’s updated season PDF (post-Florida) were not yet released; some season totals are estimates clearly marked with *. No public adjusted completion %, on-target rate, or deep-ball accuracy data exists for either quarterback.